Sunday, August 23, 2015

Big Picture: CL Crude Oil where will it stop falling?

Oil CL is so awesome for day trading that one often completely neglects that it is great for swing trading as well or even long term trading with large profitable moves very much in the cards.   Of course in the recent year it has fallen sharply and continues to fall.   So where might a support area be that might permit a reversal trend swing trade?  

Incorporating the remarkable Jurik JMA into the various Chaos indicators yields some great signals, to illustrate consider the following chart that provides a very early indication of the support area - that spot at $38.00 is where one should definitely cover any shorts (sell any puts) and seriously consider going long.  Sometimes price action penetrates the support by a bit and turns back up through the support, that may very well occur here but in either case that area around 38 is an excellent spot for reversal zone plays.   It could of course simply rip right through it and fall below that as well but that is less likely due to the distance between the purple line up top (which is still at $109) - rather it will likely turn around at 38 and head back up some is in the cards, enough at least to pull the purple line down from its lofty heights.    In any case the conservative course of action is not necessarily to go long there at 38 but one must definitely exit any short position once price reaches there is prudent.  And then to consider a long after that would be the swing trading plan.

Notice how extremely early the support was apparent with this indicator, it was obvious when CL was trading in the $60 range!  






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